📈 MainSpring ETFs- 50bp cuts and Vol on the rise!

9.16.2024 | Daily ETF Market Morning Spring

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Monday, September 16th, 2024  

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Data reflects end-of-day ETF market data for Friday, September 13th, 2024

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This is a big week for markets, the Fed is set to cut interest rates on Wednesday, and the market is betting on 50 bps of cutting. The chances of 50 vs 25 bps have been wavering 50/50 for a while. In my opinion, this is the Fed’s worst-case scenario, which shows maximum uncertainty. Whether you believe 50 or 25 bps is right, the Fed has left much up to interpretation.

As we move closer to Wednesday the market is looking for more confirmation of a 50 bps cut.

What’s going on in the pond?

Market Volatility is on the rise:

Two weeks ago the S&P 500 started signaling to investors trouble was coming, the major index ended down over 4 percent, which has not been seen since the SVB crash last October. The following week, the trend completely reversed, ending up over 4 percent. It was back to back the worst week for the $SPY YTD then the best week YTD.

An additional benefit of ETFs vs. separate accounts is the fees are tax deductible:

Common problem: Advisor fees are not tax-deductible. The current tax code does not allow the deductibility of financial advisory fees, which means that a 1% fee is a pre-tax expense to the client. e.g, $10,000 is paid on $1mm SMA is $10,000 out the door. ETF

solution: Fees are tax-deductible. Management fees in an ETF can be netted against dividends, interest, and income, implicitly making them tax-deductible. The deduction’s value will vary depending on the situation, but at a minimum, the after-tax fee for HNW clients will likely be 25%-30%+ cheaper than an SMA equivalent. E.g., $10,000 might only be $7,000 on an after-tax basis, or a 30% cheaper after-tax fee than the SMA equivalent after-tax fee., $10,000 (1-t) on a $1mm, where t = the blended tax rate on the dividends, interest, and income received in the ETF wrapper. https://

Flows, Flows, and more Flows:

Here are the top 10 ETFs ranked by lifetime flows and their age.. $VOO is another level at $21b/year lifetime (about 2x any other ETF) and yet.. it has taken in $64b YTD. There is a good chance $VOO takes in more cash this year than all but about 8 ETFs have taken in in their entire lives

What I am reading today:

These are things I have found interesting, novel, or educational. Popular sites include TrackInsight, ETF.com, Bloomberg & ETF Trends

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell assets or make financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.

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