📈 MainSpring ETFs- Nothing Stops This Train

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Fed day is here, and for the first time in over a year we have a live meeting, and for the first time in about a year and a half, we have uncertainty about the magnitude too. 25 is a done deal, and the bond market thinks 50 is more likely. Whether the Fed goes 25 or 50, this will be the first time since the mid-90s that a Fed cut happened outside of a recession or a financial panic.

The market is pricing a 66% of a 50 basis point cut. But the overwhelming majority of economists expect 25. This is an unprecedented divergence. Typically, the day before the meeting, these odds are either 95%-100% or 0%-5%. So, this level of uncertainty alone is unusual.

What’s going on in the pond?

Nothing stops this train:

This is not the platform for a small duck to perch on his high branch and lecture our readers about the issues around the government’s debt burden. But, as the Fed is about to cut with the market at all-time highs, unemployment sitting at 4.2 percent, and nearly 40% of all Americans now own their homes mortgage-free. Why is one 25bp cut considered too small, and 50 more justified? If I had to guess, it would be the problems surrounding our country’s ability to service its growing debt burden. Amongst other things.

At one point, it made, some crumb of sense. As the Government ramped up spending in the wake of the GFC 08’ and the many wars we fostered, the interest rate was falling to zero, thus the payments were nothing. Which is great until it’s not….

I bring this up on Fed Day not to lecture but to simplify a theme I see brewing in the future. The current situation in which our country is in, is where debt is the only thing that matters, and to keep the game going there needs to be a few ingredients. One is growth at all costs, no matter how it happens, even if it costs the government a lot of money today this country needs growth, and we are getting it!

Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast is now nearly 3%, which is higher than where it was before the last Fed meeting at the end of July (see red arrow below.)

The second ingredient is a neutral level of interest rates, a rate where we can still grow as a country, employment remains healthy, the consumers remain healthy, the debt can be serviced comfortably at this rate. Nobody knows this rate, not even the FED. What we do know is that it isn’t 5.5%, and it isn’t Zero! So, why is today so important? Today the Fed embarks on a journey to find a rate at which this country can sustainably fuel growth, without inflation eroding our savings but where there is enough inflation to slowly burn the debt away. We also need to be able to pay for the constant escapades in foreign nations, plus whatever the campaign trails promise. All this is to say our country is in a form of fiscal dominance, one where the government spending is holding many aspects of our economy together, this isn’t a bad thing as long as you know the importance of being invested in the market, whether it is in equities, commodities, real estate, gold, bitcoin (I heard ETFs do a great job of offering diversification) or, preferably, some combination.

In summary… Nothing Stops This Tain!

• Check out the ETF Tools Page

• Check out the 100 Latest ETFs issued.

• Check out quantitative leveraged ETF trading at alphaAI

• Check out this Earings tracker Calendar. Find out who is reporting, and when… All in one place.

  • Deeper insight into this week’s earnings, here.

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Please reply and let me know what you’d like to see, anything you think would be useful, or insightful.

Life is rich,

_{- Addison}

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell assets or make financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.